On the eve of the attack on Iran, American voters were skeptical about using military force, as our Vantage Data House poll from February 25–27 shows. As the war drags on, its effects are being felt at the gas pump, in airfares, and in consumer sentiment, while criticism mounts, particularly from U.S. allies. Against that backdrop, it was time to ask the same question again. A Fox News poll, for example, suggests support for military action is slipping. Our analysis, however, tells a different story: support among American voters has increased — a shift that can be explained in part by the “rally ’round the flag” effect and today’s partisan media landscape. Our results come from a model-based approach, which we believe better captures voter sentiment than conventional topline polling and is therefore more useful for understanding how opinion may translate at the ballot box.
Over four weeks of war, overall support among American voters for the use of military force rose by 7.2 points. That is a substantial shift, even though a majority of voters, 56.7%, still prefer other options. Within the Republican Party, the MAGA response is especially important. One of MAGA’s core appeals under Donald Trump was the promise of “no more forever wars,” and commentators have predictably highlighted criticism from figures such as Joseph Kent and Marjorie Taylor Greene as evidence of a possible split. But our data tell a different story. MAGA support for military force rose by 15.4 points, and a majority, 53%, now support it.
In political science, the “rally ‘round the flag” effect — a short-term rise in support for the government during war or international crisis — is a familiar concept. It can help explain the Iran war, albeit in a more partisan form. Support for military action rose by 14 points among Republicans and by 7 points among Independents. Those Democrats who already held an opinion on the war, before it started, did not become more supportive of the war, but they did not grow more opposed either. However, of those Democrats who previously did not have an opinion, many shifted to opposition. Overall, Democrats’ support for either of the non-military options rose by 7.4 points. The shift among Independents, I would argue, is especially important: it supports the rally ‘round the flag narrative and may prove decisive in determining whether the war ultimately helps or hurts Republicans.
Explore yourself
There are more interesting stories that come out in the cross-tabs of our data such as the gender gap. Head on over to our interactive poll explorer to find out for yourself.
How We Differ From Conventional Polling
Our polling uses a modeling approach. Rather than reporting raw or reweighted survey responses — the conventional method — we estimate nationwide opinion through a machine-learning ensemble (see for example). That allows us to make more granular statements about voter groups such as MAGA, Tech Bros, and Six-Figure Socialists. Because these estimates are combined with a turnout model and then post-stratified, they reflect the views of American voters rather than the public as a whole and are therefore more useful for understanding how opinion may translate at the ballot box.